Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
